IPL 2009 - CSK safe inspite of loss to KKR.... but other two spots??? :)

With just 5 matches to go, has it become easier to say which three teams will join Delhi Daredevils to make the last 4? Not yet, though Chennai Super Kings look safe inspite of the loss to Kolkota Knight Riders.

Chennai Super Kings, by virtue of the other results in recent days, are virtually safe and join DD as a qualifier. There is a scenario where they could be on par with RR, but their superior net run rate will see them through in such an eventuality.

A resounding NO! Not at all. It just got even closer, with the new dimension being that teams like DC, RCB, KXIP in with a chance on the net run rate EVEN if they lose their last game!! (RCB infact has two games to play).

Rajasthan Royals appears to be the only side that MUST win the last game to be in the reckoning. Interestingly, they can miss the top four EVEN if they win their last game. (See Scenario Two).

Deccan Chargers are better placed if it gets down to checking the net run rate to decide the qualification.

The DD/MI result can go any which way, the result of this game just does not matter to the teams in the fray.


More scenarios!!!

Scenario 1

CSK defeat KXIP
RCB defeat DC and DD
KKR defeat RR

Final Tally:
DD - 20
CSK - 17
RCB - 16
DC and KXIP tied on 14 each.
Rajasthan Royals will be eliminated, with probably KXIP also losing out on run-rate unless they win with a huge margin – something in the 60/70 runs range.


Scenario 2

RCB lose both games
RR defeat KKR
KXIP defeat CSK

Final Tally:
DD – 22
DC – 16
KXIP – 16
CSK or RR – 15
RCB will be eliminated. Very unlikely RR will match CSK net run rate.


Scenario 3

RCB defeat DD but lose to DC.
RR defeat KKR
CSK defeat KXIP

Final Tally:
DD – 20
CSK – 17
DC – 16
RR – 15.
Kings XI Punjab and Royal Challengers Bangalore eliminated

Scenario 4

RCB defeat DD but lose to DC.
KKR defeat RR.
CSK defeat KXIP.

Final Tally
DD – 20
CSK - 17
DC – 16
RCB/KXIP – 14 each
Rajasthan Royals eliminated

Scenario 5

RCB defeat DC but lose to DD.
RR defeat KKR
CSK defeat KXIP

Final Tally:
DD – 22
CSK - 17
RR – 15
DC/RCB/KXIP – 16
Whew!! Net Run Rate - probably DC will prevail unless they lose to RCB by a massive margin – some 60 – 70 runs difference.

Scenario 6

RCB defeat DC but lose to DD.
KKR defeat RR
CSK defeat KXIP

Final Tally:
DD – 22
CSK – 17
DC/RCB/KXIP – 14
One of the three will lose out.